EV transition: Clean transport in Australia presses on in first half 2024 

The first half of 2024 has seen many pivotal moments for the electric vehicle (EV) transition in Australia: not least the introduction of a New Vehicle Efficiency standard (NVES), which aims to reduce the average emissions of Australia’s car fleet.

But it has also been six months beset with global headwinds and local hurdles. Inflation and interest rates are hitting household pockets hard, while sentiment towards EVs has soured as misinformation about EVs proliferates. As industry bodies caution against parking and charging EVs in carparks, drivers seem to be backing away over EV safety concerns.

It’s not all bad news, however. In recent years, there have been three main barriers to purchasing an EV: price, range and choice. Now, prices of EVs are dropping, awareness of driving range is increasing, and there are more EVs on the market than ever before.

We take a look at the last six months in the EV landscape in Australia. 

EVs are starting to take off in Australia, with more than 50,000 new electric vehicles sold in the first half of 2024. With EV-only brands like Tesla and Polestar standing out in traffic, a drive through any main road in our capital cities now makes a healthy game of EV spotto.

But after several years of rapid growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales from a low base, the market experienced a slowdown in the first half of 2024. While BEV sales increased 161 per cent from 2022 to 2023, the first six months of 2024 have seen a modest 16 per cent rise.  

Despite this slowdown, EV sales are still growing faster than petrol and diesel-fuelled cars combined, which have increased 8.7 per cent. Petrol vehicle sales are declining, falling 7.3 per cent in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023.

However, EV sales are falling behind hybrids - whereas battery electric sales overtook hybrids 12 months ago, hybrid sales now outnumber EVs two to one.

This is particularly so in the SUV segment, where battery electric sales have dropped 1.5 per cent.

But why? No doubt there is a combination of factors, from rising interest rates, uncertainty about charging infrastructure, and EV sales hitting a wall as the early adopter market starts to dry up.

Drivers are opting for hybrids instead, while some buyers are perhaps waiting to see pricing for a slew of new EV brands, or the new “Juniper” Tesla Model Y recently spotted in camo overseas. To drivers less likely to jump into new technology, hybrids represent a savings in fuel combined with the familiar – filling up at the petrol pump.

Experts say that drivers likely also think they’re doing the right thing for the environment – but as the Electric Vehicle Council’s lifecycle emissions calculator shows, hybrids emit more carbon than EVs over the lifetime of the vehicle.

EV sales growth is highest in the passenger car segment (a 50 per cent increase), as the refreshed “Highland” Tesla Model 3 and the new BYD Seal hit our shores. These arrivals, along with electric hatchbacks like the MG4 and BYD Dolphin, have kept passenger car sales on par with hybrids.

Regardless of a potential drop in electric SUV sales while waiting for the Juniper Model Y (as we saw before the Highland Model 3 arrived), Tesla remains the leader in the EV space. Its market share has dropped slightly to 49 per cent in the first half of 2024, down from 57 per cent in 2022 and 2023 – a trend that is likely to continue once the NVES encourages other carmakers to sell more EVs, and more EV-focussed brands arrive on the market.

Perhaps the better question to ask is, “Which brands are selling the highest percentage of EVs?

The answer to that question is, of course, EV-purists Tesla and Polestar. But which brands come next may surprise you. Having introduced the Sealion plug-in hybrid, Chinese newcomer BYD is no longer a purely battery electric brand - BEVs for the time being make up 95 per cent of the vehicles sold in 2024.

Volvo, by contrast, is accelerating towards its goal to sell 100 per cent all-electric by the end of 2026. With the introduction of the EX30 compact SUV jumping into the top ten in June, along with the XC40 Pure Recharge and C40 Volvo’s BEVs make up 43 per cent of its sales for the first half of the year.

In fifth place is BMW, which has the largest stable of EV offerings in Australia (nine in total). BMW’s pure electrics accounted for 27 per cent of sales (including subsidiary Mini brand) in the first half of 2024. Mercedes-Benz – which has seven BEVs in its stable - followed with 16 per cent BEV sales.

Although MG is the fourth biggest seller of BEVs by units, because it sells in the high volume sector with almost 25,000 vehicles sold in the first half, it falls after Mercedes-Benz in terms of BEV share at 13.9 per cent.

New Vehicle Efficiency Standard

For the first time, a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (supported by the NRMA) has been introduced which will fine carmakers that do not limit the average emissions of the vehicles they sell in Australia.

It’s a change that caps off a number of policies designed to encourage a transition to EVs in Australia by mandating a limit on carbon emissions of vehicles sold in Australia, where transport-related emissions account for more than 20 per cent of the total and are projected by government to become the largest contributor by 2030.

However, getting it over the line – even in a revised format - saw polarising stances of industry mainstays and electric-vehicle focussed carmakers, on how strict carbon emissions limits should be, cause a split that saw Tesla and Polestar publicly announced they would leave the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries.

The impact of this departure was not limited to the FCAI itself. Tesla, though a member, did not report local sales figures to the FCAI until March 2022. Before that, it took a great deal of number-crunching to estimate Tesla vehicle sales in Australia – and because Tesla dominated the market, electric vehicle uptake as a whole.

Now, with Tesla, Polestar (and until last month, MG) reporting electric vehicle sales through the Electric Vehicle Council, counting EV uptake requires double counting yet again.

Charging infrastructure

EV charging infrastructure continued to grow in the first six months of 2024 in Australia, reaching more than 1000 DC fast charging sites in total.

The expansion of public charging infrastructure has not been without challenges. Tritium, the Brisbane-based company which has supplied the majority of DC fast charging units to networks in Australia (including to the NRMA), announced in April it would seek a buy out after being placed in voluntary administration.

NRMA continues to roll out the National Network co-funded by the Australian Government using units from alternative suppliers, and in an Australia-first trial, has collaborated with Chargefox so that EV owners can access both networks through the one app.

In June, the NSW State Government announced its third round of regional EV charging grants, with up to $54 million available in the latest round. To date, the funding has supported the installation of 189 fast charging stations from $83 million of funding allocation, and stimulating $128 million in private investment.

Acoustic Vehicle Alert Systems

Alongside the passing of the NVES in May was the announcement that new laws would mandate a minimum noise be emitted by cars travelling at slow speeds.

For electrified vehicles, this means an Acoustic Vehicle Alert System is required for new vehicles sold from 1 November 2025. Similar laws have been introduced overseas and have been welcomed by Vision Australia, which has advocated for their introduction since 2018.

However, there has been some criticism from drivers who say that the new law negates the benefit of quiet driving that EVs have, and question why it wasn’t brought in sooner for hybrids, which have been on the market for 20 years. Others cite incidents where they have been almost hit in carparks because an EV is almost silent when travelling at very low speeds.

Carpark fire safety

In June, Fire + Rescue NSW released a position statement warning it considers EVs to be “special hazards”, acknowledging that incidents involving electric vehicles (EVs) and EV infrastructure are rare, but that they also have “potentially high consequence" and “require enhanced fire safety measures in place to facilitate safe and effective fire brigade operations.”

The position was published at the same time as the Australian Building Codes Board invited comment for changes to its National Construction Code. In the case of electric vehicles, the changes in question relate to carpark fire safety improvements that mandate sprinkler systems are signed off by a building surveyor.

Fire + Rescue NSW’s position is that EVs should not be parked or charged in carparks without sprinkler systems signed off to safety standards – a move that Ross de Rango, head of Energy and Infrastructure at the Electric Vehicle Council, says is not supported by evidence, and would unnecessarily increase the cost of building construction.

As Australia approaches the date that penalties kick in for the NVES on 1 July 2025, EV sales may face more hurdles as carmakers continue to squeeze a profit from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

By then, there will be a new playing field for carmakers to navigate. Already, prices of EVs are dropping – EV manufacturers started slashing prices in the first weeks of the year, with some models down as much as $25,000.

With new reports that battery manufacturing costs are dropping faster than expected this trend is likely to continue, particularly as a slew of new EV-focussed brands enter the market.

With most state EV rebates now slashed, there’s more reason for drivers to hold out for lower EV prices. As of June 2024, there are only EV rebates available for those wanting to go electric in Queensland – which still has a generous $6,000 rebate available and $5.6 million left to spend on nearly 1000 sun state drivers who want to go electric - and Tasmania, where a handful of $2000 incentives remain.

With new EV brands from China due over coming months, there will be more choice than ever for drivers.

However, there are still some glaringly important gaps in the market to fill. The 4x4 ute market accounts for more than half of new vehicle sales, with scarce all-electric options. Electric utes at an attractive price point that fit the bill and budget for tradespeople and utility needs are proving slow to come to market.

LDV’s $92,000 RWD eT60 has not sold in any numbers, and the Ford F-150 Lightning available through remanufacturer AusEV can burn a hole through a pocket from a distance. Tesla showed off its Cybertruck in recent months but there is no sign yet that it will actually be sold here (and how many would really buy it?)

A new electric ute from Dutch off-road specialist Tembo has also just been announced – the Tusker, which is available in both RWD and AWD format and is priced from $74,000 before on-roads, or on subscription.

Other than that, there are just two other electric utes due in the next six months – the Isuzu D-Max BEV, and a second from LDV known as the Maxus GST. The question is, what will it take for reigning champs, the Toyota Hilux and the Ford Ranger, to be knocked off their perch?